We ran the spatial model for seven scenarios as follows:
Historical: Current deforestation trends across the Basin and no further road paving.
Governance: All governance assumptions as previous version.
Governance without roads: All governance assumptions as previous version without further road paving
Business-as-usual Br-163: All BAU assumptions but only BR-158 and BR-163 paved after 2008.
Business-as-usual Assis-Cusco, All BAU assumptions but only BR-158 and “Interamericana” paved after 2008.
Business-as-usual Manaus Porto Velho, All BAU assumptions but only BR158 paved after 2008 and BR-319 paved after 2010.
Business-as-usual: All BAU assumptions as previous version: Current trends across the Basin plus extensive road paving according to a road paving schedule.
Deforestation forecast (average trend)
Results are analyzed for three regions
BR-163 area of influence
Manaus – Porto Velho area of influence (BR-319 )
Assis-Cusco (interamericana area of influence)
BR-163 area of influence (2030)
BR-163 area of influence (2050)
Summary statistics for BR-163
Manaus – Porto Velho area influence (2030)
Manaus-Porto Velho area influence (2050)
Sumarry statistcs for Manaus-PV
Assis-Cusco area of influence (2030)
Assis-Cusco area influence (2050)
Summary statistics for Interamericana Highway
Deforestation is already in full swing across the BR-163 area of influence, but road paving within a current business-as-usual scenario will further accelerate this process, leaving few changes to implement a comprehensive conservation of this region. Within a Business-as-usual scenario, the three major deforestation frontiers (Southern Para, Terra do Meio, and Transamazônica) will encounter by 2050. Notice the expressive influence of the expansion of the eastern deforestation frontier through Terra do Meio, Santarém surroundings and northeastwards. This was somewhat overlooked in face of Cuiabá-Santarém Highway paving debate, but this frontier should be regarded as equally important in terms of its potential impact. Of the three analyzed regions, this is the most critical whether paving occurs or not and thus a thorough implementation of a Governance scenario in the short run will be crucial for its conservation. Timing is decisive for this purpose.
Of the three regions, the Interamericana highway seems to produce the least effect on the regional deforestation. Nevertheless, its impacts propagate more intensely across the States of Acre and Amazonas than the Madre de Dios region.
In turn, road paving will make the largest difference over the Manaus Porto Velho region due its remoteness and large expanses of unprotected forest along its route; even within a Governance scenario deforestation tends to sharply increase, especially around Manaus city.