How deforestation-induced local and regional climate changes affect agricultural production in the Brazilian Amazon
We developed a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of local and regional climate changes due to deforestation on agricultural outputs in the Brazilian Amazon, focusing on soy-maize double cropping and pasture productivity. We also assessed the potential benefits of large-scale reforestation for enhancing local and regional climate patterns. Our interdisciplinary investigation engages with stakeholders aimed at fostering strategies, public policies, and climate litigation actions towards the conservation of the Amazon Forest, given its pivotal role in sustaining agribusiness.
Soybean plantation in Pará
Maize production in Pará
Since 1980, the delay in the onset of the agricultural rainy season has resulted in a 76-day shift in largely deforested areas (forest loss > 80%), representing an augment of 40% from more conserved areas where forest loss is less than 20%.
Largely deforested areas have experienced reductions in rainfall of up to 40% during the first crop season of the soy-maize double cropping and 23% in the second crop season between 1999 and 2019. Maximum air temperatures in some areas increased by up to 15%.
Deforestation is increasingly affecting crop productivity. From 2006 to 2019, deforestation led to an estimated annual economic loss of US$ 20.30 per hectare for soybean and US$ 7.53 per hectare for maize, amounting to 10% and 20% of the net revenues for soybeans and maize cropping, respectively.
Large forest loss has also led to a shift towards lower-quality pastures, hence economic losses due to reduced forage and increased management costs
Restauration of 4.5 Mha of Legal Reserves and 1 Mha Areas of Permanent Preservation as required by the Forest Code translates into a profound positive shift in the rainfall regime. Large-scale forest restoration is the state of Pará may result in an average recede of 5 days in the onset of the rainy season that could reach up to 19 days, as well as an average increase of 10 mm in rainfall that could amount to 152 mm in some regions.
Conserving and restoring the Amazon Forest is a global imperative, as many nations rely on this biome integrity for food, fuel, feed, and many more ecosystem services. Collaborative efforts from governments and international partners are necessary to address these challenges comprehensively.
This project is related to the following Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the United Nations:
